Fuck it, legalize it all!

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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WildCat
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by WildCat » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:53 am

Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:The contention that more guns = more murders is complete, utter bullshit and easily shown to be false. Besides my Illinois example Mexico has one of the lowest rates of gun ownership on the planet - and one of the highest murder rates.
No the contention is that less guns, less murder by guns. And that guns one and only purpose is to kill. Let's eliminate that.
Already disproven by Mexico. Very few guns, very high murder rate.

You're just spouting bullshit, and easily debunked bullshit at that.

Did you forget this is a skeptic's forum?
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Cloverlief » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:53 am

ed wrote:
WildCat wrote:
Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:
Cloverlief wrote:[q2) Statistic per 100,000 on gun deaths:
Murder - USA 3.5, Britain 0.06, Australia .18
Suicide - USA 6.69, Britain .15, Australia .8
Accidental - USA .18, Britain 0, Australia .02
Why do you care which method of suicide people choose?

And murder is not evenly distributed, as it would be if guns were a primary cause. Murder is primarily cultural.
Who said that I did? Stop building strawmen. The conversation is about deaths due to guns. That is the number of deaths due to guns in 3 country's, two of which have strict gun laws.

And even if murder were primarily cultural, which it isn't, we don't need to make it easy.
If it wasn't primarily cultural we'd see murders distributed evenly amongst the population. But they aren't.

If guns were the cause we'd see a direct correlation between rates of gun ownership and murders, and we don't. Indeed, in Illinois it's actually a negative correllation. Chicago has a gun ownership rate 1/3 the state average, and a murder rate 7 times higher than the rest of the state.

Those are facts, facts which directly falsify your claims.

Do you know what's different about Chicago? A strong gang culture among the black and Hispanic population. A culture which doesn't exist elsewhere in the state, or in the countries you want to use as an excuse to take my civil rights away.

The contention that more guns = more murders is complete, utter bullshit and easily shown to be false. Besides my Illinois example Mexico has one of the lowest rates of gun ownership on the planet - and one of the highest murder rates.

If you expect people to give up their civil rights you'd damn well better have ironclad, irrefutable proof that giving up those rights will have the effect you claim it will. So far all you've done is provide bullshit and propaganda by anti-gun groups.
I'd like to make the point that Chicago is a prime example of the almost complete abrogation of responsibility by the civil authority for the safety of it's inhabitants.

The reasons are many, I suspect, but the primary one is unbridled racism on the part of successive democrat administrations.
Ohhhh, and now you are stealing other people's posts! Weeeeee!!!!

Australia has seen a dramatic drop in the murder rate since the applied stricter gun control laws in 1996.
Chani

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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Cloverlief » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:55 am

WildCat wrote:
Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:The contention that more guns = more murders is complete, utter bullshit and easily shown to be false. Besides my Illinois example Mexico has one of the lowest rates of gun ownership on the planet - and one of the highest murder rates.
No the contention is that less guns, less murder by guns. And that guns one and only purpose is to kill. Let's eliminate that.
Already disproven by Mexico. Very few guns, very high murder rate.

You're just spouting bullshit, and easily debunked bullshit at that.

Did you forget this is a skeptic's forum?
You seem to have done so. You and Ed seem to have confused this for the asshole and fallacy forums.

And again for the idiots in the back (that would be you and Ed), Correlation and Causation. Look it up.
Chani

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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by WildCat » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:30 am

Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:
Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:The contention that more guns = more murders is complete, utter bullshit and easily shown to be false. Besides my Illinois example Mexico has one of the lowest rates of gun ownership on the planet - and one of the highest murder rates.
No the contention is that less guns, less murder by guns. And that guns one and only purpose is to kill. Let's eliminate that.
Already disproven by Mexico. Very few guns, very high murder rate.

You're just spouting bullshit, and easily debunked bullshit at that.

Did you forget this is a skeptic's forum?
You seem to have done so. You and Ed seem to have confused this for the asshole and fallacy forums.

And again for the idiots in the back (that would be you and Ed), Correlation and Causation. Look it up.
You're now in the rarified realm of Creationism, whereby no data or evidence can falsify your hypothesis.
Do you have questions about God?

you sniveling little right-wing nutter - jj

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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Edward » Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:57 am

Hello?! Hello?!

What's all this shouting?! We'll have no trouble here!
Hello? Hello? What's all this shouting?! We'll have no trouble here!

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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by sparks » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:11 am

Too late. :ImOuttaHere:
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Tubbs » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:02 am

WE DIDN'T BURN HIM!

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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by ed » Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:51 am

Cloverlief wrote: No the contention is that less guns, less murder by guns. And that guns one and only purpose is to kill. Let's eliminate that.
This is banal and stupid, frankly. "Get rid of cars and car related deaths will cease"

Useless and circular.

This is why I want to stay with principles. Are you concerned with the preservation of human life or merely how it might be taken? If the latter, we are talking style is all. The homicide rate in the UK seems to have actually increased after all of their restrictive gun laws. Would you congratulate yourself that the lost lives were not taken by firearms? What a shallow victory.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by ed » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:17 am

Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:
Cloverlief wrote:
WildCat wrote:The contention that more guns = more murders is complete, utter bullshit and easily shown to be false. Besides my Illinois example Mexico has one of the lowest rates of gun ownership on the planet - and one of the highest murder rates.
No the contention is that less guns, less murder by guns. And that guns one and only purpose is to kill. Let's eliminate that.
Already disproven by Mexico. Very few guns, very high murder rate.

You're just spouting bullshit, and easily debunked bullshit at that.

Did you forget this is a skeptic's forum?
You seem to have done so. You and Ed seem to have confused this for the asshole and fallacy forums.

And again for the idiots in the back (that would be you and Ed), Correlation and Causation. Look it up.
Weeeeellllllll ... yeah correlation NEQ causation. However many models are correlative and it depends what questions are being asked and how the models are constructed.

If there were a strong relationship between guns and suicide one would expect there to be a strong correlation particularly when you have repeated measures across nations, cultures and socio-economic conditions. You might do some sort of ANOVAR on the data presented with those variables included but, on the surface, I would expect some new variable (or composite variable) to explain the bulk of the variance.

We did stats in my first company and what we used to tell the new people was "you can't ignore what you know". Meaning that if you got a positive price elasticity (ie price goes up, sales volume goes up) you damn well better be sure of that finding because otherwise you'll be laughed out of the room (n.b. Contac took off after they increased the price back in the day. Price and "effectiveness" are somehow linked in consumers minds). Where was I ... oh yeah.

Saying Correlation NEQ causation is a bit like the ignorant saying "you can't yell fire in a crowded theater" as an example of how the first amendment is limited. If you say the latter to a lawyer he will laugh at you. If you say the former, without qualification, the applied statistician will look at you with a raised eyebrow and a look of infinite superiority. Consider yourself looked at.

In the present case, there is no strong relationship between suicide and guns. Neither positive nor negative. If there were, you would see it. To claim that the IS such a relationship, given the data presented, it seems to me that the onus would be on the claimant to suggest HOW such a relationship is being masked. Because, to torture another quote, you really can't prove a negative. Which is what you are asking for, no? You are saying "prove that there is no relationship".

Your trite example of ice cream and temperature or whatever it was is, in case you haven't noticed, a positive, strong relationship, not an essentially random one. If your example were relevant it would apply if there were a strong relationship between guns and suicide. But then you'd be arguing against yourself. Do you see that?

I've actually got a leg up on you lot because I have actually fooled around with this sort of cross country data for years (well, not continuously) and whatever relationships there may be between guns and homicide rates are weak. The banal finding (which is really too stupid to spend much time on) is that guns are implicated in gun deaths. <yawn>. The issue at hand is loss of life.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by ed » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:22 am

Nyarlathotep wrote:This is what I mean when I say no one really gives a shit about the first amendment no matter how much they may claim otherwise, since the argument here seems to be "Keep guns but censor movies"
You are really off the deep end. Really and truly. This is so bizarre that I sorta believe that you are just trolling. Or are you so literal an allusions and sarcasm zoom over your head? I really don't get it.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by sparks » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:14 am

ed wrote:
Nyarlathotep wrote:This is what I mean when I say no one really gives a shit about the first amendment no matter how much they may claim otherwise, since the argument here seems to be "Keep guns but censor movies"
You are really off the deep end. Really and truly. This is so bizarre that I sorta believe that you are just trolling. Or are you so literal an allusions and sarcasm zoom over your head? I really don't get it.

Yes.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by ed » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:39 am

Are you agreeing with me or are you suggesting that Nyarl has a point and that I don't get it? And if he has a point that is obscure to me please explain it. Take your time, remember what I have recently seen.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:00 pm

Nyarlathotep wrote:This is what I mean when I say no one really gives a shit about the first amendment no matter how much they may claim otherwise, since the argument here seems to be "Keep guns but censor movies"
Not a bad characterization of Republican Party liners, but I am not one of those.

I like both amendments just fine, thank you.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Nyarlathotep » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:57 pm

It's not a bad characterization of people in general. Republican and otherwise. Everyone wants to shut their opponents up. They also want to pretend to be good people. So they pretend to be all "I don't like what you have to say but will defend your right to say it"...blah blah blah, yakkity schmaikkity...cue the eagle humping a flag...etc.. while working their butts off to find ways to get around the pesky thing.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Nyarlathotep » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:23 pm

ed wrote:Are you agreeing with me or are you suggesting that Nyarl has a point and that I don't get it? And if he has a point that is obscure to me please explain it. Take your time, remember what I have recently seen.
My point shouldn't be obscure at all. People claim to be in favor of free speech and all that. THe same people will rush to find a pretext to censor other people when those other people say things they don't like. I.e. you and Wildcat being in favor of censoring violent movies.

If that is obscure, I have no idea how to make it less so.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by ed » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:33 pm

Nyarlathotep wrote:
ed wrote:Are you agreeing with me or are you suggesting that Nyarl has a point and that I don't get it? And if he has a point that is obscure to me please explain it. Take your time, remember what I have recently seen.
My point shouldn't be obscure at all. People claim to be in favor of free speech and all that. THe same people will rush to find a pretext to censor other people when those other people say things they don't like. I.e. you and Wildcat being in favor of censoring violent movies.

If that is obscure, I have no idea how to make it less so.
you and Wildcat being in favor of censoring violent movies.
That is bullshit, made up and vile. No one said that. If you say I am saying that movies should be censored you are either deluded or a damn liar.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Nyarlathotep » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:46 pm

Then what was the point of you bringing them up at all? What was the pint of WC asking “how many lives are your movies worth?”
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by ed » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:43 pm

Nyarlathotep wrote:Then what was the point of you bringing them up at all?
An allusion, a way to demonstrate that the issue is complex, a way do show that the idiots in Hollywood don't have clean hands. A multitude of reasons.
What was the pint of WC asking “how many lives are your movies worth?”
Rhetorical question I suspect. you'd have to ask him.


So ... is your default position that anything that causes harm should be banned? Because that is the only interpretation of your posts that makes any sense because NO ONE SUGGESTED CENSORING MOVIES.
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:48 pm

So what was the point about George Clooney?
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Re: Fuck it, legalize it all!

Post by Nyarlathotep » Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:03 pm

ed wrote:
Nyarlathotep wrote: So ... is your default position that anything that causes harm should be banned? Because that is the only interpretation of your posts that makes any sense because NO ONE SUGGESTED CENSORING MOVIES.
My default position is that people only believe in free speech that they approve of and are lying when they say otherwise, possibly even lying to themselves.

If you were not suggesting censorship, then bringing them up was pointless
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