Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

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Anaxagoras
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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by Anaxagoras » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:40 am

I wonder if Musk has too many big ideas for his own good.

Tesla missed its Model 3 production target...but investors are still relieved

Investors are dumb to be relieved. They are fudging the numbers.
From the article:
Tesla: First quarter production up 40% from Q4
Tesla: First quarter production up 40% from Q4
18 Hours Ago | 03:44

Tesla missed its quarterly target for producing its hot Model 3 cars, but investors still breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday that the numbers weren't more disappointing. During the last week of the quarter, the electric-car maker produced 2,020 Model 3s, coming up short of its goal to produce 2,500 Model 3 sedans a week.
So they say they made 2,020 Model 3s in the final week of the quarter. So how many did they make for the whole quarter? 8,180. There's 13 weeks in a quarter so they averaged 630 per week. I think they must have held back some of the production from previous weeks so that they could get over 2000 in that final week.

For Tesla, ‘Production Hell’ Looks Like the Reality of the Car Business
Mr. Musk once envisioned producing as many as 500,000 cars this year, and last summer he was hoping to be able to make 20,000 Model 3s a month by December. More recently, Tesla had aimed to produce at least 2,500 Model 3s per week by the end of the first quarter.

But that is more than it managed in the entire fourth quarter, and it has produced fewer than 10,000 in the first quarter, the company said Tuesday.

There have been signs of momentum, however. In the past seven days, Tesla said, it had produced 2,020 Model 3s, a rate it said it expected to sustain in the coming week.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Tesla said it expected its output to “climb rapidly” through the second quarter and reach 5,000 per week in about three months. It added that it was “rapidly addressing production and supply-chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment.”

Tesla has closely guarded the details of its manufacturing system, but Mr. Musk has described it as highly automated.
Anyway, the share price did rise over 5% on the news, even though it is dubious. If they are truly producing over 2000 per week now, then at a minimum they should produce about 26,000 in Q2, but more than that if they want to reach their goal of 5000 per week by the end of the quarter.
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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:59 am

Tesla halts Model 3 production for a second time

As I said before, I was skeptical that they really produced 2000 vehicles in the final week of the quarter. Now they are spinning this latest halt as something completely normal and expected, but I don't put much stock in their explanations because they have every incentive to fudge the truth if things are going badly.
Tesla Inc. confirmed Monday afternoon that it has halted production of its new Model 3 electric car for a second time.

“Our Model 3 production plan includes periods of planned downtime in both Fremont and Gigafactory 1,” a Tesla spokesman said, in repeating the company’s statement from a weeklong shutdown in February. “These periods are used to improve automation and systematically address bottlenecks in order to increase production rates. This is not unusual and is in fact common in production ramps like this.”

Tesla TSLA, -3.04% credited the first pause in production of the new car at its Fremont, Calif., plant with helping to ramp up production, which is behind the schedule Chief Executive Elon Musk laid out for the car last year. Some analysts posited that the delay allowed the company to build up its supply of batteries from the Gigafactory, Tesla’s battery factory in Reno, Nev., which is also trying to ramp up production to meet ambitious schedules.
If we are to believe them, we would have to believe that about one quarter of their entire quarter's production came in the final week. To put it another way, it would mean they averaged a rate of 500/week for the first 12 weeks of the quarter and then 2000 in the final week.
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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by robinson » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:32 pm

Musk tweeted he was wrong about using robots. Wants to hire hoomans to build cars
You never know what's going to happen

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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:54 am

robinson wrote:Musk tweeted he was wrong about using robots. Wants to hire hoomans to build cars

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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:16 am

He really wants robots, but bowed to political pressure.

Because he might lose his position as the world's wealthiest welfare recipient.
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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by Rob Lister » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:23 am

Abdul Alhazred wrote:He really wants robots, but bowed to political pressure.

Because he might lose his position as the world's wealthiest welfare recipient.

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Re: Tesla worth more than GM or Ford now

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:01 am

Tesla Did It, With A Ton Of Caveats

They may be cutting corners. But, they did up the volume by 55% over the previous quarter. Some of these cars are now being built in a tent, so there are questions about whether the quality is the same.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
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