The Official Ebola Thread

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:13 am

I'm not particularly against the idea. I don't know what is prudent. I put a good deal of trust in the CDC but it looks to me as they're a bit dumbfounded by it.

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Pyrrho » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:38 am

Once we take that step there will be no going back.

I have no confidence in the government's ability to manage a quarantine of this nature.

This is going to get very much uglier than it already is.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:09 am

Pyrrho wrote:It's okay, no worries, the mayor held a press conference, it's all good. Local news is handling it as professionally as one might expect.

(snip)

Image

(snip)

I saw that plane at the airport on the drive home. I would quarantine myself but I didn't inhale.
Hasn't it been about 3 weeks now since she was in Cleveland or on a plane? No word of any new patients infected due to that?
Says she was in Ohio from the 8th to the 13th of October before flying back to Dallas.
I suppose we should wait another week or two to be sure, but I'm guessing now that it didn't spread from her.

Or is it still too early for a secondary transmitted infection to show up if there was one?
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:16 am

Anaxagoras wrote:Since election day is tomorrow, there may be a political aspect here:

NBC/WSJ Poll: 71% Back Mandatory Quarantines for Ebola Health Workers

Support is strongest among Republicans and Tea Party supporters but about two-thirds of Democrats also favor quarantines.
Quarantine them quick before they vote. :notsure:
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by DrMatt » Tue Nov 04, 2014 4:06 pm

Flew to Cleveland after staying in Akron?
That's what, like a 90-minute drive?
Google Maps says it's less than 45 minutes drive.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:42 pm

NY doctor diagnosed with Ebola to be released from hospital after being declared disease-free.

Looks more and more like the outbreak has been contained.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/ebola-infe ... d=26714595
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:54 pm

The Economist has some graphs, but not the one we want:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... a-graphics

I want to see a graph that shows whether we are "bending the curve" or not. At the end of the day, that's how you can tell whether the epidemic is being effectively contained or not.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Nyarlathotep » Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:29 am

Was just hearing that they are monitoring a patient in Reno for Ebola. If I am not here tomorrow, you know I caught Ebola and died. It was nice knowing you all.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X » Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:04 am

We have the appropriate solvents for your stereo.

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Witness » Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:56 am

Nyarlathotep wrote:Was just hearing that they are monitoring a patient in Reno for Ebola. If I am not here tomorrow, you know I caught Ebola and died. It was nice knowing you all.
Hey, you don't have to run with the fashionista crowd – choose something different!

And by the way:
International SOS wrote:
--Nigeria
Last Updated: November 10, 2014 06:42 GMT

STATUS: DECLARED EBOLA FREE 20 OCTOBER

All contacts completed 21 days monitoring 1 October with no further cases identified. Last confirmed cases reported in early September (Lagos - 5 September, Port Harcourt - 1 September).
https://www.internationalsos.com/ebola/ ... nt_id=418&

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Pyrrho » Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:01 am

The flash of light you saw in the sky was not a UFO. Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus.

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:14 am

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-d ... story.html
FREETOWN, Sierra Leone — When Martin Salia’s Ebola test came back negative, his friends and colleagues threw their arms around him. They shook his hand. They patted him on the back. They removed their protective gear and cried.

But when his symptoms remained nearly a week later, Salia took another test, on Nov. 10. This one came back positive, sending the Sierra Leonean doctor with ties to Maryland on a desperate, belated quest for treatment and forcing the colleagues who had embraced him into quarantine.

“We were celebrating. If the test says you are Ebola-free, we assume you are Ebola-free,” said Komba Songu M’Briwa, who cared for Salia at the Hastings Ebola Treatment Center in Freetown. “Then everything fell apart.”

Salia died early Monday at the Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, his family left to wonder what would have happened if he had received earlier treatment.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:26 am

Spain 1 case
Guinea 1919 cases 1166 deaths
Sierra Leone 5586 cases 1187 deaths
Senegal 1 case
Mali 4 cases 3 deaths
Liberia 6878 cases 2812 deaths
Nigeria 20 cases 8 deaths
United States 4 cases 1 death*
14412 cases, 5177 deaths as of Nov. 17.

Slowing down? It was 13,703 cases 4920 deaths as of Oct. 31.

There were some dire predictions by the WHO of 5,000 to 10,000 new cases per week by the end of November:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... e21085134/
West Africa will be enduring 5,000 to 10,000 new cases of Ebola every week by the end of next month, the World Health Organization says.

The worrisome new forecast was issued on Tuesday by the WHO’s deputy director-general, Bruce Aylward, in a press briefing in Geneva. He predicts a dramatic rise from the current total of about 1,000 new cases weekly.
That's less than 1000 new cases in over 2 weeks, according to the official numbers. Of course, there may be cases we don't know about, but still . . .
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:43 am

On most any subject, WHO predictions are generally as reliable as pulling a number directly out of one's ass. The CDC is a much more reliable source and even they are not all that reliable, but at least they give justification for their numbers. Their report dated Sep 26 http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm (see Results) is an interesting if complicated read. Pretty graphs that are hard to make sense of (said Lister, passively).

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by ed » Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:51 pm

shit. Time to change my avatar?
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Pyrrho » Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:25 am

Image
The flash of light you saw in the sky was not a UFO. Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus.

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister » Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:31 am

Why doesn't he cover his fucking mouth. Do the dracula. Jeez. 3 feet. That's just where the children are!

Meanwhile

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Anaxagoras » Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:47 am

Good news, everyone! (No, really!)

It looks like they are getting it under control:

WHO official says Liberia, Guinea meeting Ebola reduction targets
GENEVA — Liberia and Guinea have met a Dec. 1 target for isolating 70 percent of people infected with Ebola and safely burying 70 percent of those who die but Sierra Leone has not, the World Health Organization said Monday.

Only last week, the U.N. health agency said only Guinea was on track to meet the targets for getting the Ebola outbreak under control in the three hardest-hit West African countries.

But at a news conference in Geneva, WHO's Dr. Bruce Aylward said the organization had revised its conclusion based on more analysis of its data. Sierra Leone also probably met the targets in the west of the country, he said, and likely will improve to the 70 percent target nationwide "in the coming weeks."

Aylward also told reporters that WHO's ambitious plan to stop the deadly Ebola outbreak in West Africa has shown it is possible to quickly reduce the "yawning gap" between disease levels and the capacity to respond.

"You can catch up with Ebola even on this scale," he said.

WHO launched its Ebola its 70 percent plan two months ago.

In Freetown, Sierra Leone, on Monday, the chief executive of the National Ebola Response Centre, retired Maj. Alfred Palo Conteh, acknowledged that "as far as meeting the 70 percent isolation target, we did not do well and could have done better."

He said authorities there need more beds for isolation, adding that 400 beds are expected in the next two weeks.

From: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/2 ... est-Africa
15,935 total cases and 5689 deaths as of Dec. 1 according to the site:

http://healthmap.org/ebola/#timeline

That's only 2,232 more cases than as of Oct. 31, whereas the increase in October was over 7,000. Even accounting for that fact that the numbers are probably incomplete, that looks like the spread is being slowed, rather than increasing exponentially.
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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Doctor X » Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:26 am

I will get on that. . . .

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Re: The Official Ebola Thread

Post by Rob Lister » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:02 pm

Image

previous
Spoiler:
Image
In sierra leone, almost 2000 new cases in the last three weeks. An additional 500 deaths.
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